Background
The Monetary Policy Committee met on the 24th and 25th of July 2017, against the backdrop of a relatively improving global economy. However, protectionism in trade and immigration; fragilities in the financial markets, remain the key risks to global economic stability.
On the domestic front, the economy is on a path to moderate recovery with a positive short- to medium-term outlook, premised largely on fiscal stimulus and a stable naira exchange rate. Inflation expectations also appear sufficiently anchored with the current stance of monetary policy.
In attendance were 8 out of 12 members of the Committee. The Committee examined the global and domestic economic and financial environments in the first half of 2017 and the outlook for the rest of the year.
External Developments
The momentum witnessed in the global economy in Q1 2017 continued through the second quarter, driven by a generally accommodative monetary policy stance in most advanced economies, moderation in energy prices and improved global demand. The emerging markets and developing economies, are experiencing positive spillovers from somewhat improved commodity prices and developments in the advanced economies. The growth prospects for this group of countries in 2017 are expected to rise to about 4.6 per cent from 4.3 per cent in 2016.
Complemented by the momentum in other blocks and a potential positive prospect for expansion in world trade, the IMF in its July edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projected global output growth in 2017 at 3.5 per cent from 3.1 per cent in 2016.
The MPC, however, noted some headwinds confronting the optimistic outlook to global growth arising mainly from receding market expectations of expansionary U.S. fiscal policy, weaker than expected growth in the U.K due to difficult BREXIT negotiations and geo-political risks associated with the forthcoming German general elections. In addition, the Committee noted the downward trend in global inflation after earlier indications of an uptick as the U.S. continues to build up inventories in shale oil, while emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa witness strong economic headwinds leading to sharp downturn in output.
Domestic Output Developments
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the contraction in the economy moderated to 0.52 per cent in Q1 2017 from 1.30 per cent in Q4 2016. The data further revealed that fifteen economic activities recorded positive growth in Q1 2017, showing strong signs of recovery.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities stood at 52.9 and 54.2 index points in May and June 2017, respectively from 52.7 and 52.5 index points in May 2017, indicating an expansion for the third consecutive month. Similarly, the Composite Index of Economic Activities (CIEA) rose from 55.85 to 59.50 index points between April and June 2017.
The Committee noted the continuous positive effects of improved foreign exchange management on the performance of manufacturing and other economic activities. Non-oil real GDP grew by 0.72 per cent in Q1 2017, reflecting growth in the agricultural sector by 0.77 per cent in the same period. Provisional data also showed that the external sector remained resilient in Q2 2017, as the overall Balance of Payments (BOP) position recorded a surplus of US$0.65 billion, equivalent to 0.8 per cent of GDP.
The Committee hopes that the implementation of the 2017 budget and the Economic Recovery & Growth Plan (ERGP) will further strengthen growth and stimulate employment.
Developments in Money and Prices
The Committee noted that money supply (M2) contracted by 7.33 per cent in June 2017, annualized to a contraction of 14.66 per cent, in contrast to the provisional growth benchmark of 10.29 per cent expansion for 2017. The development in M2 reflected a contraction of 7.45 per cent in net foreign assets (NFA) in June 2017.
Similarly, M1 contracted
contracted by 7.98 and 10.70 per cent in May and June 2017, respectively, consistent with the directive of the MPC that expansion in narrow money should be controlled. On the other hand, net domestic credit (NDC) grew modestly by 1.02 per cent in June 2017, (annualized at 2.04 per cent), driven mainly by net credit to government, which grew by 5.91 per cent.
Credit to the private sector, however, declined relative to end-December 2016 by 0.02 per cent. The MPC noted the widening fiscal deficit of N2.51 trillion in the first half of 2017 and the growing level of government indebtedness and expressed concern about the likely crowding out effect on private sector investment. The constrained growth in the monetary aggregates provides evidence of weak financial intermediation in the banking system arising from the constraints imposed by developments in the macroeconomy.
Headline inflation (year-on-year) declined for the fifth consecutive month in June 2017, to 16.10 per cent from 16.25 per cent in May, and 18.72 per cent in January 2017. Core inflation moderated to 12.50 per cent in June from 13.00 per cent in May 2017 while the food index rose marginally to 19.91 per cent in June from 19.27 per cent in May 2017.
This development was traced to intermittent attacks by herdsmen on farming communities, sporadic terrorist attacks in the North-East and other seasonal farming effects. The Committee was particularly concerned about the unabating pressure from food inflation but hopeful that the situation will dampen in the third quarter as harvests begin to manifest.
The Committee also attributed the moderation in inflation to be partly due to the effects of the relative stability in the foreign exchange market, stemming from improved management, which promoted increased inflows.
Against this backdrop, the Committee reiterated its commitment to sustain and deepen flexibility in the foreign exchange market to further enhance foreign exchange flow in the economy. The Committee, however, noted the protracted effects of high energy and transportation costs as well as other infrastructural constraints on consumer price developments and expressed hope that government will fast-track its reform agenda to address these legacy issues. The Committee noted that while responding to the current tight monetary policy stance, inflation still had a strong base effect which is expected to wane by August 2017.
Money market interest rates moved in tandem with the high level of liquidity in the banking system. The interbank call rate opened at 16.13 per cent on May 25, 2017 and closed at 4.43 per cent on June 29, 2017. However, the average inter-bank call rate during the period stood at 12.49 per cent. The movement in the net liquidity position reflected the effects of OMO, foreign exchange interventions, statutory allocation to state and local governments, and maturity of CBN Bills.
The Committee noted the improvements in the equities segment of the capital market as the All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 33.33 per cent from 25,516.34 on March 31, 2017, to 34,020.37 on July 21, 2017. Similarly, Market Capitalization (MC) rose by 32.84 per cent from N8.83 trillion to N11.73 trillion during the same period. Relative to end-December 2016, capital market indices rose by 26.59 and 26.81 per cent, respectively, reflecting growing investor confidence due to improvements in foreign exchange management. The Committee however, noted the seeming bubble in the capital market and cautioned on the utilization of the inflows.
Total foreign exchange inflows through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) increased by 35.41 per cent in June 2017 compared with the previous month. Total outflows, on the other hand, decreased by 12.73 per cent during the same period, as a result of reduced CBN intervention in the interbank foreign exchange market, which also reduced TSA (dollar) payments balances by 61.4 per cent in the period under review. The positive net flows resulted in an
