Brookings, the World’s most influential think-tank based in the United
States, have projected a President Jonathan victory over the opposition
candidate’s General Buhari in the 2015 Elections which it suggests would
be keenly contested.
The analysis, context and rationale of the think-tank’s projections is
contained in the Brookings publication titled: Foresight Africa – Top
Priorities for the continent (January 2015).
“Though the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still
favor President Jonathan.’
According to Brookings, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a fragile
anti-jonathan establishment with a sole purpose to return power to the
“The party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest
to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power “returned” to the
“The APC gets much of its strength from tap- ping into anti-Jonathan
sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel
that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political
The Report also indicated that the APC’s strategy is hinged on a
combination of popular votes from the North West, North East and “the
battleground SouthWest” but also hinted at the possibility of Bola Ahmed
Tinubu not delivering the region contrary to speculations.
“What remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubu—a former
governor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the formation of the
APC and is considered to be the party’s strongest mobi- lizer in the
southwest—will be very enthusias- tic in delivering the battleground
southwest to the APC during the elections.”
“Tinubu indicated his interest in being the party’s vice presidential
candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party’s strategists felt
that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the PDP’s
labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.”
On President Jonathan’s performance: “despite Boko Haram—the country is
thriving: The economy continues to grow and—with the re- basing of its
GDP—became the largest econo- my in Africa and the 26th largest in the
world. Jonathan’s supporters also point to his success in containing the
Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and
institutions around the world.”
The Brookings Report also identified factors such as incumbency and
numerical control of States where PDP has 21 States and APC only 14 as
giving PDP an edge.
“The greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its “power of incumbency,” and
all the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does it have
federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutions”
The report advised that all efforts should be deployed to ensure a free,
fair and transparent elections and to avoid a meltdown as post-election
violence seems very likely.
“Post-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC loses
while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan
does.” the report noted.pointbhlank.